If you thought last year was a one-off, think again. Summer heatwaves in Europe, similar to the one that caused thousands of premature deaths amongst the elderly and fuelling massive forest fires, are likely to be common before the end of this century, according to a report commissioned by the European Union.

"Our models show that in Europe, by the late 21st century, about one summer in two should be at least as hot as the one in 2003," said Christoph Schaer, a professor of climate sciences at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, which carried out the research. Such heatwaves are likely to become "the rule rather than the exception" in more than 70 years' time, the institute said.

Burning hot summer
Last year's summer had daytime temperatures in the upper 30s degrees Celsius in many parts of Western Europe. Thermometers went through the ceiling on many occasions as centuries old peak records were broken with highs above 40 degrees.

As well as the human cost in lost lives amongst the elderly and infirm, the extreme conditions led to huge forest fires, destroying over three times more woodland in France than usual, causing severe droughts and water shortages.

Models predict more of the same
The climate models the researchers established for the last third of the 21st century came up with average temperatures and rainfall in Europe similar to those experienced last summer. Also, global warming could lead to a broader range of climatic conditions rather than a constant rise in temperatures, and sharper variations in the weather during a season, according to the researchers. That pattern would make it harder for farmers to adapt to the new conditions by bringing in new crops more adapted to a hotter climate, they warned.

The results of the project by the institute and the Swiss meteorological service, Meteosuisse, were published in the latest edition of the science magazine Nature. The project was financed by Swiss authorities and the European Union. (12/01/2004)